Octagon Prediction Markets

ChatGPTby Octagon AI

Octagon Prediction Markets turns Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets into a research dataset: current odds, what moved them, where the market-implied probability diverges from an independent model estimate, and how much each market's price can be trusted. Built for analysts, economists, strategists, policy and risk teams, and journalists who treat event probabilities as data. Give it a market and it returns a cited analyst brief: - What resolves the event, and when - The current market-implied probability, with its timestamp - How that probability has moved over time, and the drivers and catalysts behind each move - How similar events have resolved before - Whether the market is mispriced relative to the model, with the size of the gap and the confidence behind it - The market's Octagon Trust Score, 0 to 100, with the reasons behind it Ask for a topic and it finds the markets that exist for it, on either venue, and shows where the model disagrees with the price. Covers more than 130,000 active events across Kalshi and Polymarket, in sports, crypto, climate, elections, finance, commodities, politics, culture, economics, and science and technology. Octagon is a research tool. It does not place, route, or recommend bets or trades, hold funds, or connect to any trading account, and it does not give personalized financial advice. Requires an Octagon account (sign up at octagonai.co). Generating new reports requires a plan that includes report generation; cached reports are available on all plans.